(02/22/12) - The Republican Presidential Primary race is still too close to call here in Michigan. That's according to an exclusive ABC12/EPIC-MRA poll released on Wednesday.
The numbers show Rick Santorum with a three-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely GOP Primary voters. But the margin of error is +/- 4.9%, meaning there's no clear leader. The poll also shows Ron Paul in third place and Newt Gingrich in last here in Michigan.
The pollsters at EPIC-MRA say what happens on Primary Day will depend on one thing -- voter turnout.
"Low turnout benefits Santorum, high turnout benefits Romney," explained EPIC-MRA president Bernie Porn.
Wednesday's poll that shows Santorum leading Romney 37-34 percent includes absentee voters, but when calculated separately, Porn says, "Those who've already voted by absentee ballot have voted for Romney, and that also coincides with his support of senior citizens 65 and over."
The numbers also show 61 percent of GOPPrimary voters support the Tea Party, while 24 percent oppose. Porn says this could favor Santorum.
"The Tea Party voters are very committed. That's why when you look at the internals, it may well be that Santorum has more of an advantage than just those three points," Porn said.
Finally, the poll shows something that could drastically change the outcome of this race -- only 54 percent of those questioned say their vote is definitive, and 45 percent say they could still change their minds.
All four remaining GOP candidates are in Arizona Wednesday night for their last debate before the Michigan Primary. Mitt Romney is scheduled to be back in his home state tomorrow for a Tea Party rally in Milford. Meanwhile, Ron Paul announced he'll make a campaign stop at Central Michigan University on Saturday.
Wednesday, May 23 2012 5:34 PM EDT2012-05-23 21:34:47 GMT
(05/23/12) - A Genesee County jury has convicted Elias Abuelazam, the man accused in nearly 20 stabbing attacks spanning three states. He faces life in prison without parole when sentenced next month. The
A Genesee County jury has convicted Elias Abuelazam, the man accused in nearly 20 stabbing attacks spanning three states.
Wednesday, May 23 2012 6:37 PM EDT2012-05-23 22:37:08 GMT
(05/23/12) - Police are looking for a Saginaw man they say is responsible for shooting another man in the face, in Bay City, Wednesday afternoon. The man is 27-year-old Roger Davis. The shooting happened
Police are looking for a Saginaw man they say is responsible for shooting another man in the face, in Bay City, Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday, May 23 2012 6:33 PM EDT2012-05-23 22:33:51 GMT
(05/23/12) - Graduation parties, weddings and other special events could feel a little deflated to some. Junction Valley Railroad in Bridgeport Township feels that way, just days before it's Memorial
Graduation parties, weddings and other special events could feel a little deflated to some.
Wednesday, May 23 2012 6:28 PM EDT2012-05-23 22:28:44 GMT
(05/23/12) - Mid-Michigan continues to rally behind Vassar soldier Travis Mills as he recovers from devastating injuries. This Memorial Day weekend, a spaghetti dinner and auction is being held to
Mid-Michigan continues to rally behind Vassar soldier Travis Mills as he recovers from devastating injuries.
Wednesday, May 23 2012 6:28 PM EDT2012-05-23 22:28:01 GMT
(05/23/12) - The Independence Bridge in Bay City is back open. The drawbridge over the Saginaw River has been left open for boat traffic since early May, when it failed an electrical test. Outside
Wednesday, May 23 2012 6:26 PM EDT2012-05-23 22:26:45 GMT
(05/23/12) - What was once the heart of the U.S. auto industry, the Flint area is now the home of thousands of abandoned homes and lots. But that's created a huge new opportunity. Between the cracked
What was once the heart of the U.S. auto industry, the Flint area is now the home of thousands of abandoned homes and lots. But that's created a huge new opportunity.
Wednesday, May 23 2012 6:23 PM EDT2012-05-23 22:23:25 GMT
(05/23/12) - The Tuscola County Sheriff's Department says they have recovered thousand of dollars in stolen property. A joint investigation lead officers to a home in the village of Snover in Sanilac
The Tuscola County Sheriff's Department says they have recovered thousand of dollars in stolen property.
